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Ecuador Presidential election: A second round run-off is now a near-certainty

The scenario is still somewhat fluid and caveats apply:
  • As per this Monday evening there are 90.2% of votes counted, not 100%.
  • President government candidateLenin Moreno has 39.09% of the votes and if he makes it to 40% + 1 vote, he wins in this round and no ballotage will be needed.
  • Main opposition candidate Guiilermo Lasso has 28.38% as per this evening and is in second place.
  • The Ecuador electoral body now don't expect 100% of votes counted before Thursday, so until then there will be a bit of tenterhooks.
However, with those taken into account and the way in which the count has developed through the 70% level and 80% level, it's now a heavy odds statistical likelihood that the Ecuador Presidential election goes to a second round run-off on April 2nd. If it does, it's going to be a very close thing for the win and the big job between the two players, because we've already seen third placed Viteri announce her support for Lasso and most of the other candidates are set to do the same. What's more, dear and kind junior mining speculator person, this whole shebang may affect you too because an eventual Lasso win would be bad news for mining stocks with Ecuador exposure. Don't say IKN didn't warn you.

A geologist demolishes the Alset (ION.v) scam (at last)

The problem with hiring an idiot as a CEO of a scammy worthless pumpjob exploreco mining junior is that when somebody who actually knows what they're talking about takes a good look at your company, not only do the promotional arguments turn to dust in seconds but the idiot at the top has no type of comeback or answer whatsoever.

For it own sake, Canada needs to euthanize this scam and all others like it. Blowhards like 100% unqualified Allan Barry require public ridicule and a guarantee that they will never soil your capital markets again. You owe a debt of gratitude to geologist DanO for shining a light on Alset (ION.v) in this solidly argued and entertainingly spleen-filled report. Go have a read.

Northern Dynasty: Ron Thiessen does BNN

From last Friday. Watch the segment right here

Personally, Ron T had me virtually at hello with his first salvo which was (and I quote), "We released an economic study in 2011 that speaks for itself". So speak to us, oh economic study!
  • A PEA (the flimsiest allowed under 43-101 rules)
  • A pre-tax IRR of 14%
  • According to the PEA a permitting track of between eight and 15 (yeah, that says fifteen) years.
  • Nobody really knows, but a capex of many many billions of dollars. Seven? Thirteen? Nobody knows! Sad!

Yup, speaks for itself. It's a bullshit project getting pumped by scumbags to idiots.


The IKN Weekly, out now

IKN405 has just been sent to subscribers. A sub-standard piece of junk that's bound to annoy everybody. Beats me how this thing has got to four hundred and five editions.

UPDATED with partial official Results: Ecuador Presidential Election: Exit polls say...

...that it's tight between two possible results:

1) Lenin Moreno (current government candidate) wins in this first round by getting at least 40% and being at least 10% ahead of the second place candidate.

2) Moreno is joined by second placed candidate Guillermo Lasso in a second round run-off, that would happen on April 2nd if necessary.

Here's the screenshot of the exit poll results from reasonably reliable pollster Cedatos:

These are nobody's idea of firm numbers, though. We'll need to see the official results roll in and it looks pretty close between the two scenarios at the moment.

UPDATE: At just before 8:30pm local time we have just been given the results of 51% of counted votes, official numbers and we're firming up towards the final score. The need to know is:
Lenin Moreno 38.26%
Guillermo Lasso: 29.86%
 The rest is noise. It's looking like a second round run-off.

UPDATE 2: Now 72.3% counted and the percentages remain very similar, Moreno 38.66% and Lasso 28.92%. This is now very likely going to the run-off.

#prayforsweden (Warning: Graphic Images)

IKN brings you images of the terrible events this weekend that have left Sweden in a state of shock.

IKN thanks the leader of the free world for bringing these events to our attention. Without the vigilance of him and his team we would never have known. 

Let's Make Ikea Great Again.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are... reverse order:

Third Place: "Angry Geologist does Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v)". The wonderful TAG is gaining market reputation quickly. And quite right too, smart independent voices speaking truth to power is how the internet should be all the time, not just in patches.

Second Place: "The funniest bits of the Northern Dynasty (NAK) ( rebuttal to the Kerrisdale hitpiece", because once you know where (and how) to look these flimsy pump jobs are fairly easy to dissect. By the way, this one got popular because Kerrisdale picked up on it and rebounded the post to its readership, which in turn is possibly why another round of trolls turned up at IKN.
First Place: "Conclusive proof that Marin Katusa is insider trading Northern Dynasty (NAK) (" and what's more it won the hit count by a nautical mile. IKN exposes the truth behind this two-faced self-serving market parasite, feeding off the naive who are stupid enough to take him at face value and can't see his scam, by using  few of his own words. And leopards and spots etc, Katusa immediately changed his tune on reading the IKN exposé. Hypocrisy and hilarity abounds.

And a reminder: Don't visit this blog, you're better off joining the cool crowd by reading IKN via the free daily mailer.


BT: The Upside Down

New track from BT and holy wow and genuflections, it's brilliant.

This is what Gustav Mahler would be doing if he were alive today. Youtube here

Northern Dynasty (NAK) ( The trolls arrive at IKN's door

William Routliffe, normally known as Bill, is a classic dumbass investment troll. They are a standard breed but they come with variants and in his case he's enamored with his guru (in his case Marin Katusa), long Northern Dynasty (NAK) ( and because of his sad-assed pathetic life the only thing he manages to do with his day is trawl the internet, find anyone and anything that dares speak a little truth into his ear and then try to beat it down with pseudo-intelectual claptrap, normally on bullboards far and wide, sometimes in comments sections of newspapers reporting on the objects of his masturbatory fantasies and from time to time, obviously, e-mails to authors. I got mine today and here it is:

Regarding your comments on the short defense, I am surprised you did not consider that the criticisms you make are also applicable to the short report.  You are scathing in your attacks on NAK, yet, you overlook the flaws in the short attack.  Do I need to point out to you the obvious disconnect ?  I understand the shorts, they stand to make enormous profits.  NAK, is of course, defending themselves.  What is your interest?  I believe you wish to appear independent and unbiased.  This string of reports puts you firmly in the short camp.  This recent post has damaged your creditability with me.  You do not appear to be objective, or intellectually honest.  What is your interest in this matter, and how are you being compensated?  How do you justify accepting the short report at face value and dismissing the defense out of hand?  The short report writers are totally unqualified and do not appear to have any professionals in place.  TD has much more credibility that some unknown short seller.  I acknowledge they both have money at stake, but I  believe TD  is more credible.  As always, sell side analysis must be taken with a grain of salt.
      If you are  serious, and intellectually honest,I believe a fair and calm rebuttal of these points is required.  If you choose not to, than it leaves me with the impression that you are no different that other scam artists and snake oil salesman that pollute the internet.
     This biased stand on NAK has led me to doubt the objectivity of your posts in general.  I have been enjoying reading your work and it has often proved interesting.  Thank you for addressing my concerns.

Therefore Bill Routliffe, I am happy to address your concerns and provide an answer to you:

Fuck off.

Love, Otto. 

PS: The word is "credibility", Bill.

Disclosure: No position at all in NAK.

PPS: And of course Mr. Routliffe felt the need to write into your humble scribe again, trolls are psychologically programmed to require the last word. And of course you humble scribe simply deleted his mail without opening or reading it, there's no point or reason in engaging with these idiots. Another day on the blog.

A Saturday Footy OT: "Roberto Baggio at 50: celebrating his five greatest free-kicks"

The article linked here and the videos of the five goals it contains is a little slice of footballing divinity. Lovers of Association Football sit back, relax, find a tasty hot beverage, click though, sigh with heartfelt desire.

Unigold (UGD.v) loses its concession

Nice late night Friday NR from Unigold (UGD.v), read it here. Basically, they've lost their Nieta project because they've been concession-squatting and the Dom Rep govt has run out of patience with these idiots. Love those late Friday NRs. Long weekend, too.


CB Gold (CBJ.v) is now Red Eagle Exploration

To the surprise of nobody.