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So to business:
1) Gold to break through U$1,400/oz in the course of 2017. I'm setting a higher bar this time, $1.4k looks a long way away here at the back end of 2016, but once the Trump Honeymoon wears off and people realize his macro policy is dollar bearish money is going to return to gold. That's the call and it also means IKN expects an excellent year for the precious metals stocks.
2) Copper to break through U$3.10/lb this year. This is also a weak dollar play in part, but it's more about China and the way its economy will pick up as 2017 goes on. I've gone for U$3.10/lb (spot price) to make it just a little more interesting than the more obvious $3.00 line.
3) Uranium will finally put in a rally and move back above U$30/lb. It's been such an easy call to fade the U-Permabulls these last three years, but even stopped clocks get it right twice a day and the one thing we can comfortably predict from a Trump presidency is a new focus on uranium. If you discount the way it turns glass those pretty green colours it only has two real uses and both are likely to get more play from this new Prez.
4) Goldcorp (GG) to merge with Agnico Eagle (AEM). Because Garofalo and Boyd are BFFs, because one has cash and a shitty asset book, because the other has assets and a lack of cash, because GG has been an abject failure in the last three years and David needs to do something before the activist shareholders come around begging for his head.
5) Colombia to become the LatAm mining success story of 2017. The country is finally getting its formal mining ducks in line, FDI will like the roll-out of the peace deal, there are already some good stories there that will get better.
6) Venezuela's government to implode. This is a repeat prediction from last year and one that failed me, but Maduro can't hold on much longer and the oft-delayed recall election is going to be difficult to put off for another year. Once again the acid test of this call will be the ousting or resignation of Maduro, if that happens I win the point.
7) Mauricio Macri and his government to lose heavily in the Argentina mid-term elections. Some happen in August, the big batch in late October/Early November (final date not set yet) and we expect Macri to be a lame duck president once it's all finished. Sergio Massa the likely beneficiary.
8) Juan Martín Del Potro to win at least one Grand Slam tournament in 2017 (Oz, R.Garros, Wimbledon, US). After years in the injury wilderness Delpo returned in style in 2016, first from his near-miracle run in the Olympics, then improving on the Tour, then leading Argentina to its first ever Davis Cup. Now we await the consecration and the long-overdue second GS win.
9) Barcelona to win the 2017 Champion's League and Spanish Primera double. Real has a decent head start on Culé in the league right now, but In Leo We Trust. And by the way, no half points available on this call, both have to happen else it's zero points for me.
10) The UK will not invoke Article 50 before the end of March 2017, the way its PM May said it would just a few weeks ago. The sooner you realize Brexit is one big red herring, the better.
There you go, our Ten For The Prize in 2017, expect the usual postmortem post around next Christmas.
UPDATE: Gold up U$13/oz since this was published, which is a nice start to the rally. But there's more to come.
Dear Reader,The most common complaint we get from our readers is that we advertise too much.Perhaps you think this is true...It may surprise you, but I wish we didn't advertise so much as well.Though I'd never apologize for aggressively getting the word out about Casey Research, I'd prefer to devote all our resources to financial analysis... in an ideal world.Here's the thing, if I did that we'd quickly go out of business and everyone would lose out. So it will never happen.However, there is a way for you to "switch off" 99% of our advertising...I can't guarantee the odd ad won't slip through somewhere, but the vast majority of our advertising will be banished from your inbox with this...You simply need to become a Casey Platinum member...With Platinum, you get everything we publish, for life... and for a massive discount on what we normally charge for our research.What that means is, there's nothing more you can buy from us, and that means no ads.In fact, this could be the last ad you ever read from us...But no advertising is a tiny benefit compared to everything else you get as a Platinum member...The real value of Platinum is that you get all of our moneymaking research, every single alert, issue and recommendation... plus much, much more...See for yourself, right here.Regards,
Editor, Casey Daily Dispatch
PS: We remind readers of the true intentions of this scumbag fraudster Stansberry, via the previous series of posts "Casey Research, now with Stansberry/Agora, will market you to death", which includes excerpts from the Stansberry secret internal dossier on how to extract as much money as possible from anyone stupid enough to hand over their e-mail address to this company of scammers.
VANCOUVER, Dec. 28, 2016 /PRNewswire/ - Sandstorm Gold Ltd. ("Sandstorm" or the "Company") (NYSE MKT: SAND, TSX: SSL) is pleased to provide an update regarding activity under its normal course issuer bid ("NCIB") as well as exploration and development progress at a number of assets underlying the Company's streams and royalties.NORMAL COURSE ISSUER BIDSandstorm previously announced a NCIB (see press release dated March 30, 2016), providing the Company with the option to purchase its common shares when management believes that the common shares are undervalued by the market. The fourth quarter of 2016 has seen significant declines in the price of gold, impacting Sandstorm's share price and market valuation. As a result, the Company has recently purchased some of its common shares. Since December 15, 2016, the Company has purchased 545,977 common shares at a weighted average price of C$4.56 per common share.
We had a deal planned but it fell through and we didn't have anything else to do with the cash.
According to the Zimtu website Voltaic Minerals (VLT.v) is its top holding. This company happens to be covered by Rockstone Research and its coverage is paid for by Zimtu Capital.Next comes Commerce Resources (CCE.v). Somewhat by coincidence this company is also covered by Rockstone Research with coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Number three on its list of top holdings is Equitas Resources (EQT.v). And shock! Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Then ALS Uranium (AL.v): Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Then Electra Stone (ELT.v): Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Then Arctic Star (ADD.v): Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Then MGX Minerals (XMG.cse): Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Then 92 Resources (NTY.v): Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.Then True Leaf Medicine (MJ.cse): Covered by Rockstone Research, coverage paid for by Zimtu Capital.
"...it's showing that the sectors of the international community who were prudent about Argentina ('s economic recovey potential) are right. The fact there has been no large influx of dollars as the (Macri) government expected indicates there was a certain amount of mistrust. The sacking (of Prat-Gay) ratifies this lack of confidence. We're going to see an Argentina that will probably be more volatile than it was this year. The challenges are going to be greater."
- In 2013 we scored 5.5/10
- In 2014 we scored 6/10
- In 2015 we scored 5.5/10
1) Gold to break through U$1,250/oz in the course of 2016.
2) Silver to rally against gold and the gold/silver ratio will finally break under 70/1.
3) Uranium to go nowhere yet again.
4) Goldcorp (GG) to buy Lake Shore Gold (LSG).
5) Copper to go under $2/lb early year and to rally to $2.50/lb by the end of the year.
6) Venezuela's government to implode.
7) Keiko Fujimori to become the next President of Peru.SCORE: 0 point: Again, close but no cigar because by a thin 0.14% margin Keiko lost the second round run-off to Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. I could cheat and give myself a half point for being that close, I won't. Fail.
8) Usain Bolt to break the world record for the men's 200 metres in the final at the Rio 2016 Olympics. Because hero (and I'll be taking half points for a gold without a record that day).
9) England to win the Euro 16 European Football Championships.SCORE: 0 point: Abject fail. I mean, beaten by Iceland. Embarrassing.
10) Christopher Froome to win the Tour de France and retain his crown.SCORE: 1 point: Oh yeah. Froomy pwned them Frenchies.
And so...roll on the drums...
"TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - December 27, 2016) - Primero Mining Corp. ("Primero" or the "Company") (TSX:P.TO) (PPP) today announced that is has received formal notification from the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") of its non-compliance with the exchange's continued listing standards for minimum trading price."
- Reducing costs and returning operations to industry-leading profitability as historically reported at its flagship San Dimas mine;
- Delivering increased cash flow from its Black Fox mine with production focus on the high-grade Deep Central Zone;
- Exploring and identifying high quality mineral resources in and around our current mines and projects.
- The technical analyst that studies gold and will tell you with exact certainty all the reasons why gold has performed the way it has in the past, then continue with a confident prediction that gold may go up, down or perhaps remain unchanged in the future.
- The idiot who pays attention to these charlatans and keeps them in business.
UPDATE: Top Argentina political blogger Abel adds his dos centavitos: Excerpt:
"...that the exit of Prat-Gay was inevitable due to the friction caused by the recession, the rate of inflation, the exchange rate lag, the frustration of a economic policy that isn't showing the results that were expected."Full thing here.
The final prospectus qualifies the distribution of an aggregate of up to 59,225,957 Brio Shares at a price of C$3.25 per Brio Share (the "Exercise Price") upon the exercise of up to an aggregate of 59,225,957 Purchase Rights, for aggregate gross proceeds to Yamana of up to C$192,484,360....
...Brio Gold will become a standalone public company effective as of the closing date of the Offering, with Yamana holding 46.3% (on a non-diluted basis) of the issued and outstanding shares of Brio Gold. The closing date of the Offering is expected to occur on or about December 23, 2016.
"A total of 17,324,507 Brio Shares owned by Yamana were transferred pursuant to the transactions ...Yamana continues to be a significant shareholder of Brio Gold, holding approximately 85% of the issued and outstanding Brio Shares."
"K92 does not expect changes to the resource estimates provided in the prior Report and no changes in the pre-tax NPV. However, a post-tax NPV will be included in the amended report. When K92 acquired the Kainantu Project, it acquired significant tax losses and these losses and other related factors will be considered and utilized in the preparation of the after-tax NPV."
And I know what Derek and Clive would say.
Jim Gowans: "We do have manganese in our zinc concentrate and that's been acknowledged since the first technical report that came out in February this year. I think just because of the errr...latest technical report because the resource has grown so large so quickly it's become much more on everybody's radar. Err, but the results have never been changed. We're currently going through...errr...metallurgical test work as you always do in work towards a feasibility study. We do know we have some manganese in our zinc concentrates. Our zinc concentrates on the whole are quite clean except for the manganese and its, it's variable in the orebodyAndrew Bell: "Brent Cook is one of our regulars, he and Joe Mazumdar run the website Exploration Insights. I'm going to give you a quick couple of quotes from Brent Cook who very kindly shared his comments on this. He said, "The article forced the company to advise the market about this issue". He also says. "We don't think preliminary results are a fatal flaw for Arizona Mining", however he does go on to say, "This will force the company to manage risk by reducing the manganese content in its final concentrate and working with smelters that are capable of blending down the content, which will no doubt add costs and risk". So can I ask you one thing, were you slow to disclose this manganese issue prior to the website raising it?"Jim Gowans: "No, we put it out in our technical report from the metallurgical test work that you saw. And that technical report from October was actually put out in February this year. I think they just errr..became more aware errr...errr..with all the conversation everybody looking at our stock. Err, we do know there's a problem...errr...you know about certain amounts in zinc concentrates, so we're working on our metallurgical test work at (place name) to see what can be done..errr...with that...err any of our conversations we've had and, you have to understand that we've had all the major mining companies have been to the site and looked at our core...err...they've looked at our results and everybody from South Deep, Teck errr...Rio Tinto and all the big companies that are interested in the orebody have been around and looked at that. We've never had anybody say that it's an insurmountable (problem), we do know that's it's an issue, so we'll just have to make sure that when we're selling our concentrates we do it well. The...the...errr..manganese in low amounts is a good thing in processing zinc in the electrolytic process, but high amounts it just causes some downtime and some interference in the processes. But in our conversations with all our people and concentrates sales people, we do know we'll get some penalty in the amount, it's very small, 1% to 2% of the total value of the concentrates, but nobody's ever come close to saying that it would be a not-saleable concentrate, because other than that it's very clean."
- Colombia: U$11m in bribes paid between 2009 and 2014 to secure civil works contracts with government.
- Peru: Between 2005 and 2014, $29m in bribes paid to government officials, mostly via middleman property development company, in order to win civil works and transport contracts.
- Venezuela: U$98m in bribes to government officials and middlemen between 2006 and 2015.
- Dominican Republic: U$92m in bribes to secure civil works contracts with government.
- Ecuador: Between 2007 and 2008 Odebrecht couldn't get permits for its projects. Then from that time until 2016 the permits were signed off. Odebrecht admits to paying U$33.5m in bribes.
- Guatemala: An U$18m bribe to win a large scale infrastructure contract.
- Mexico: $10.5m in bribes between 2010 and 2014.
- Panama: $59m in bribes between 2010 and 2014.
"Mining will continue without the export tax because it implied raised judicial insecurity, which I believe is the most complicated condiment we can show to international investors".
"David Schummer, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, is leaving New Gold and Raymond Threlkeld, currently a member of the company's Board of Directors, will become Interim Chief Operating Officer."
UPDATE: And reader MP reminds your humble scribe that...
"...the interim COO is the former RR President and CEO who engineered the deal in the first place...".
Argentina: Das Neves spells it out in ChubutWe’ve followed the declarations of Chubut governor Mario Das Neves on mining quite closely on these pages, as the province is one of the clear testing grounds of Argentina’s supposed new attitude towards mining and home to the big Navidad project owned by Pan American Silver (PAA.to) (PAAS). The national Macri government has aggressively promoted mining in the region, with its known anti-mining governor Das Neves being guarded up to this point in his responses. But not any more. While visiting the nation’s capital Buenos Aires on December 13th last week, Das Neves took the gloves off and spelled it out for all to hear (9) while participating in a press conference on the opposition tax reforms that were passed by the lower house and are about to the debated by the Senate of governors (of which he is one). He said (translated), “In Chubut there isn’t going to be any mining investment because we are going to defend the environment and the quality of life of our people”. And to make sure the message got through, on the 14th on his return to Chubut Das Neves said (10) (translated), “In this province we are not going to allow mining company investments because we want our people to live well and to care for the resources of Chubut”.If we consider these statements in the light of the proposed Federal Mining Agreement (see IKN394 and IKN395) which needs people such as Das Neves to sign on and is already delayed, the inertia in mining reform is now palpable. The sooner the North realizes it’s been sold a false story about the imminent opening of the whole of Argentina to the mining industry, the better.
Great Youtube here. For the great Maisie.
...the report on the site visit to Continental Gold's (CNL.to) Buriticá project.
All the meta-twaddle and nonsense you read above was prompted by reading GMP's call on Argonaut Gold (AR.to) this morning. They like the thing, want you to buy it and even resort to the puerile "it's a smart money buying opportunity right now" argument to get your ego stirring and you on the phone to the trading and compliance desks. Thing is, GMP and IKN could argue the toss about its valuation call on the AR.to numbers (1.15X of NAV8% is rich as hell for this thing, guys) but when it comes to its pol risk call on what's happening in Mexico, they're just being plug dumb stupid. The subject is again San Antonio in Baja California Sur State, and the line GMP uses is..."We continue to take a conservative approach, estimating production beginning in Q4/15."Woah! Stop! That is not a "conservative approach". The true conservative approach is estimating production that will never begin and removing the $1.30/share NAV estimate for that "asset" (word used loosely, because in fact it's the exact opposite, a liability) from the calculation. Expecting San Antonio to ramp up in 2015 and calling that a "conservative" estimate shows a complete and utter lack of understanding about the political risk factors around the project, even if you decide to disagree with IKN's own "never gonna happen" call. It's the hallmark of a nodding dog analyst who cannot speak Spanish, hasn't bothered to read up on the local situation, has no clue about the type, strength or depth of the opposition to the project and has limited their DD to a phone call to the IR department to find out the company's own viewpoint and repeated it verbatim to brokerage clients.
Remember this September 6th IKN post? It went like this:
"The next news from Eldorado Gold (ELD.to) (EGO) now that the Jinfeng mine deal is closed and the company has got the cheque, will be the exit of president and CEO Paul Wright who is about "to be resigned" by its board. Shouldn't be too long."
VANCOUVER, Dec. 16, 2016 /PRNewswire/ - Eldorado Gold Corporation ("Eldorado" or the "Company") today announced that Mr. Paul Wright will retire from his position of President and Chief Executive Officer following the Company's 2017 Annual General Meeting in April 2017. Continues here.
So, 63 and "retired"? You're kidding me, right? IKN kung fu is strong.
- With further work done, they claim to be able to optimize the concentrates to create a cleaner product (regrinds, treatments etc).
- They also claim that the penalty they'd incur on Mn content is "approximately 1%" of the value of the concentrate "and is therefore immaterial".
I mean, who reads Forward Looking Statements anyway?
"Although Arizona Mining has attempted to identify important risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual performance, achievements, actions, events, results or conditions to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking information, there may be other risks, uncertainties and other factors that cause performance, achievements, actions, events, results or conditions to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended."
Wrap your arms around the day and celebrate its existence. Youtube here.
(sorry, doing this on the phone, can't embed)
Hey, remember this post back in April?
Here's a chunkette from the script:
"...changes, framed as "design enhancements" by OGC in its February 2016 NR, are anything but that. Those that really know about these things believe Haile has turned into a migraine-level headache for OGC, with overruns in capex and timeline to production (first ore through the mill was supposed to happen 4q16...kiss that goodbye)."
Now compare that to the news out of OGC this morning on Haile:
The Minera IRL Christmas party for local residents.
UPDATE: Oh this is fun! Here's what Tommy Humphreys of CEO.ca has to say about the GMO article on Arizona Mining:
Because if there's one thing that Tommy Humphreys, two-faced scamster and purveyor of paid-pump bullshit to greenhorn idiots, knows about, it's provocative misleading headlines and one-sided articles. GMO should wear it as a badge of honour.
PS: To fully understand Tommy Humphrey's petulant little outburst, three items to consider:
- Richard Warke is Frank Giustra's pally pal and business partner.
- Tommy Humphreys is Frank Giustra's poodle.
- Tommy speaks up when given orders from his owner.
The best intersections were from hole 16-04 which returned 4.0 meters grading 0.69 grams per tonne gold and hole 16-09 which returned 6.3 meters grading 0.185 grams per tonne gold.